Asia-Pacific Watches US Midterms as Tariffs and Iran War Bite
Al Jazeera reports Asia-Pacific governments hit by US tariffs and the Iran war energy shock are watching the November 3 midterms, with little policy change expected.
The story in focus
Asia-Pacific governments and businesses affected by US tariffs and the energy shock of the US-Israel war on Iran are watching the November 3 US midterm elections, Al Jazeera reports from Kuala Lumpur. Analysts say a Democratic-controlled Congress is unlikely to change Trump's tariff or war policies, though tougher China technology restrictions are expected regardless.
- Al Jazeera reported from Kuala Lumpur that Asia-Pacific governments and businesses are watching the November 3 US midterms.
- Analysts cited said a Democratic-controlled Congress would be unlikely to force changes to Trump's tariff or Iran war policies.
- The Philippines has been under a national energy emergency since March due to Gulf oil dependence, per ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
- Analysts expect Congress to pass tougher China tech restrictions such as the Remote Access Security Act and MATCH Act.
Tariff and energy pressures
Al Jazeera reports that Asia-Pacific governments and businesses are watching the November 3 US midterm elections, with many seeking major changes to Washington's trade and foreign policy. Few analysts cited expect that outcome even if Democrats take the House of Representatives.
Regional economies were among the hardest hit outside the Middle East by the energy shock after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to US and Israeli strikes. The Philippines, which sources most crude from the Gulf, has been under a national energy emergency since March, while poorer economies drained foreign reserves on fuel, according to the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
On trade, Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs of 10 to 50 percent on about 90 countries last year, with Cambodia facing 49 percent and Laos 48 percent. After the Supreme Court struck those down in February, the administration imposed 10 and 12.5 percent tariffs on goods from 60 partners in July over forced labour concerns.
Congress and China policy
Trade specialist Steven Okun of APAC Advisors told Al Jazeera that Congress cannot change trade policy and that tariffs and the war will not shift. He said a Democratic Congress might investigate the war and hold oversight hearings but would not alter its overall impact.
Okun said the next Congress will pass tougher China technology restrictions regardless of the result, including the Remote Access Security Act, the Chip Security Act and the MATCH Act.
Stephen Olson of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute argued a strong rebuke of Trumpism could embolden pro-free-trade Republicans and yield carve-outs for Southeast Asian exporters, with deeper change waiting for 2028. Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations said the region wants more stable trade policy and security guarantees but doubts it will get them.
What do analysts expect from the US midterms for Asia-Pacific tariffs and China policy?
Analysts told Al Jazeera that Congress cannot change Trump's tariff or Iran war policies even if Democrats win. They expect tougher China technology restrictions, including the Remote Access Security Act and MATCH Act, to pass regardless.
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