WTO official says trade growth outpaced expectations despite geopolitical tensions
WTO Deputy Director-General tells Montreux forum that trade grew 4.6% in 2025 despite earlier negative forecasts, as geopolitics reshapes supply chains.
The story in focus
WTO Deputy Director-General DJ Nordquist told the Swiss Coffee Trade Association forum in Montreux on 1 October 2026 that trade grew 4.6 per cent in 2025, defying negative forecasts, with 72 per cent still under most-favoured-nation rules as supply chains adapted to geopolitical and security pressures.
- WTO economists had projected negative trade growth for 2025, but trade rose 4.6 per cent, outpacing global GDP.
- Nordquist said 72 per cent of worldwide trade still occurs under most-favoured-nation rules.
- She argued the WTO's transparency, monitoring and dialogue functions matter more amid geopolitical tension and low trust.
Growth defied earlier forecast
Speaking at a panel on leadership in global trade at the 17th Swiss Coffee Trade Association Forum on 1 October in Montreux, Deputy Director-General DJ Nordquist said WTO economists had projected negative trade growth at the start of 2025. Instead, trade grew 4.6 per cent for the year, outpacing global GDP, she said.
Nordquist said 72 per cent of worldwide trade still occurs under most-favoured-nation rules. Trading partners may be shifting among the top economies, but trade has continued and adjusted to what she called a new normal.
WTO role in a fragmented system
Nordquist said geopolitics and economic security now weigh more heavily in trade decisions, with companies weighing geopolitical exposure, supply security, regulatory risk and resilience. She argued that governments are pursuing differing industrial, climate, resilience and security objectives.
The WTO, she said, can help by improving transparency through notifications, promoting dialogue and reforming a rulebook more than three decades old. Given geopolitical tensions and a lack of trust, she said a grand multilateral bargain is hardly possible, but that makes the institution's basic functions more important.
Cooperation over fragmentation
A successful WTO does not require resolving every disagreement among its 166 members, Nordquist concluded. It requires showing that members with different interests and economic models can still cooperate and deliver better outcomes than fragmentation.
What share of global trade still occurs under most-favoured-nation rules, according to the WTO official?
Nordquist said 72 per cent of worldwide trade still occurs under most-favoured-nation rules. She cited this figure while describing trade adaptability amid shifting partnerships and rising geopolitical and economic-security considerations.
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