IMF: Global Growth to Slow to 3.1% in 2026, Risks Tilted Downside
IMF projects 3.1% global growth in 2026, down 40 basis points from last year, with 3.4% forecast for 2027, citing war-driven commodity shocks and AI demand.
The story in focus
The IMF said global growth is projected at 3.1% this year, 40 basis points below last year, and 3.4% in 2027. Speaking in Bangkok, chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said resilience is under strain, with risks tilted to the downside.
- Global activity is projected to grow 3.1% this year, 40 basis points lower than last year.
- The IMF forecasts growth of 3.4% in 2027.
- The IMF cites war-driven commodity prices as a negative supply shock and AI as a positive demand shock.
Growth outlook and competing forces
At a press briefing in Bangkok on October 13, the IMF said the global economy has been resilient but that this resilience is under strain, with risks tilted to the downside. Global activity is projected to grow 3.1% this year, 40 basis points lower than last year, and is forecast to rise 3.4% in 2027.
IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro described the outlook as the net result of two forces: higher energy and commodity prices triggered by the war, which act as a negative global supply shock, and a technology boom driven mostly by AI, which acts as a positive demand shock lifting prices and activity, particularly trade and investment.
Resilience limits and policy response
Tenreyro identified three constraints on resilience. Extreme weather linked to El Niño could further disrupt commodity markets and add supply pressure. AI supply chains are highly concentrated in a few countries, sectors and firms, creating potential chokepoints. Higher borrowing costs and interest payments could crowd out critical spending and reduce fiscal buffers.
The IMF called for restrained fiscal policy amid inflationary risks. It said countries with high debt and deficits should begin fiscal consolidation and put deficits and debt on a downward path, while any support should be temporary and targeted at the most vulnerable. It also stressed central bank independence and urged countries to build fiscal buffers, safeguard financial stability and strengthen supply-side resilience.
What growth rates does the IMF project for 2026 and 2027?
The IMF projects global growth of 3.1% this year, 40 basis points below last year, and forecasts 3.4% growth in 2027, with risks tilted to the downside.
Sources & further reading
- IMF World Economic Output Press Briefing ↗mediacenter.imf.org
Help keep the record accurate. Send a correction.
